Abstract
The present study consists in assessing the feasibility of implementing demand forecasting techniques due to the optimization of inventory management, so that it is objective the reduce storage costs and to have the least amount of stationary material stock in a certain period. Data analysis was for application of techniques based on the real case of a multinational company in the segment of electronic and digital systems in the infrastructure area, which operates in the metropolitan region of São Paulo.The study aims to evaluate the behavior of the studied company demand, in order to demonstrate some forecast models for it and thus being able to identify the most appropriate method to get the highest possible degree of assertiveness. At a first moment, there will be a survey of data concerning the company's historical demand, including the forecast used at the latest period, and then to survey the state of the art discussed topic, in order to clarify the reader, and as a result: the analysis of the collected data and the implementation of demand forecasting techniques presented in bibliographic references.After performing an analysis of the naive method demand forecasting practiced by the company, was carried out the application of different forecasting methods and found out that the method that best suits the given demand was the moving average, which provided the optimization of cost of storage in approximately 63% of the one presented by the naive method and also a gain of approximately R $ 2,000,000.00 during the studied period, thus proving the effectiveness of demand forecasting application for inventory management.
Highlights
Is possible to see that the set of uncertainties in a business segment is proportionally linked to the chances of obtaining negative results, both financially as to the level of service
The impacts caused by the development of a demand forecasting are crucial to the survival of businesses: on this account, mistakes can cause the end of its existence; and accurate results can leverage profits and ensure its expansion and market gain
Due to the presented problem, it is of considerable importance to develop a demand forecast which can stabilize the flow of materials to greater assertiveness in meeting demand, since for the product in question, after survey and analysis of the actual demand data and the expected one, there was excess on average about 5.5% of the material required to meet demand
Summary
Is possible to see that the set of uncertainties in a business segment is proportionally linked to the chances of obtaining negative results, both financially as to the level of service This is a factor that is evident even to organizations working in the design and production of consumer goods. The impacts caused by the development of a demand forecasting are crucial to the survival of businesses: on this account, mistakes can cause the end of its existence; and accurate results can leverage profits and ensure its expansion and market gain Due to this fact that there are several techniques to achieve the demand forecast and several technological features that make accurate results, based whenever possible on data analysis using quantitative methods. ABC Group will be used as the base of this search, so that its operation happens in approximately 180 countries, where electronic and digital systems are developed in the building infrastructure area
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