Stocks and flows of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) in China: 1980-2050

Abstract

Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is a widely consumed plastic material and may lead various environmental pollutions. China produces and consumes the largest amount of PVC material in the world, owing to its rapid urbanization and economic growth. Herein, we establish a dynamic material flow analysis methodology for quantifying PVC stocks and flows in China, including material input, manufacturing and consumption distribution, and waste management stage. We examine the material flow of PVC in China from 1980 to 2015. The PVC trajectory analysis from 2016 to 2050 is based on the historical PVC material consumption data and scenario analysis. Total amount of PVC consumption in all types of products dramatically increased from 0.4 Mt (0.4 kg/capita) in 1980 to 14.5 Mt (10.7 kg/capita) in 2015, with a cumulative amount of 173.7 Mt. The rapid increase of PVC consumption in China significantly accelerated the PVC waste accumulation, reaching 66.3 Mt, accounting for 38.2% of total PVC use from 1980 to 2015. Building & construction sector has the largest PVC in-use stock, while consumer goods sector generated the largest PVC waste. In recent fifteen years, mechanical recycling, chemical recycling, incineration, and landfill of PVC waste ratios are 25.5%, 0.8%, 9.3%, and 36.0%, respectively. The PVC trajectory analysis shows that by the end of 2050, the accumulative PVC waste in China will be 508.6 Mt in the limited growth scenario and 562.0 Mt in the business as usual scenario. Based on the MFA results, policies for improving PVC recycling system were analyzed in this work.