Stock-flow adjustment in the evaluation of public debt dynamics in Poland

Abstract

Goal – The aim of the paper is to analyse the significance of the economic category referred to as stock-flow adjustment (SFA) for the evaluation of the level and dynamics of public debt in Poland. The category is an important part of the analyses called excessive deficit procedure (EDP) conducted by The European Commission. It is also a major contributor to the growth of public debt. It is also related to political activities which fall into the category of creative accounting. Stock-flow adjustment is, therefore, a threat to the stability of public debt. In spite of all this, SFA is not taken into account in Polish documents related to debt management. Research methodology – The analysis performed by the Author is based on the desk research method. It is mostly a qualitative analysis, relying on the literature and both strategic and operational documents of the European Commission and the Polish Ministry of Finance. Stock-flow adjustment is widely regarded in literature as an expression of the hidden part of public debt dynamics. This paper offers an evaluation of SFA’s influence on public debt and its different degrees across both developing and developed countries. Moreover, the documents of the European Commission and the Polish Ministry of Finances are analysed from the point of view of SFA. Score – The analysis undertaken in the paper reveals that stock-flow adjustment has a strong impact on the occurrence of the so-called debt pikes, i.e. sharp increases in public debt. Many authors’ conclusions confirm that SFA considerably affects the level of debt. They also associate it with the restrictiveness of fiscal rules and creative accounting. Thus, SFA is an important element of public debt sustainability. SFA is included in European Commission analyses, but fails to be recognized by Polish documents. It is strongly recommended that SFA is taken into consideration in public debt management in Poland.