Stock Valuation and Dividend Policy Decision of PT ELSA INDONESIA, TBK

Abstract

Oil shortages began in 2015 due to underinvestment caused by ESG policy. Oil firms need the funds to finance their new refinery, rig, and exploration since most western countries are switching from oil to alternative energy. Geopolitical and economic instability, fear of a downturn, and rising inflation have harmed the worldwide Oil and Gas services market Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, oil prices rose to USD122/barrel for WTI and USD128/barrel for Brent. WTI fell to USD80/barrel and Brent to USD86/barrel by 2022, despite mid-year volatility. PT Elnusa Tbk is an integrated oil services company through its subsidiaries, offers services that include geophysical data, drilling, and oilfield services. The objective of this research is proposes to evaluate the financial performance, valuation and making a recommendation for ELSA regarding its cash. Two methods of valuation are utilized to estimate ELSA’s intrinsic value: absolute valuation and relative valuation. Discounted Cash Flow to the Firm (DCF) model is used for absolute valuation, meanwhile Price to Book Value (PBV) and Price to Earning Ratio (P/E Ratio) methods are used for relative valuation. Dividend policy and buyback share projection is conducted to find the best decision for ELSA. By referring to absolute valuation, ELSA’s intrinsic value is estimated at IDR639/share. By referring to relative valuation using PBV and P/E methods, ELSA’s intrinsic value is calculated at IDR 564/share . These numbers are significantly higher than ELSA’s current price at IDR 378/share, thus providing relatively high margin of safety.in the following stage ELSA will keep on paying dividends to the shareholders. With ELSA DPR 33,25% in 10 years ELSA will have 4,756,289 million in 10 years and the cash could be for management risk if a big crisis or force majeure.