Stock returns in Chinese markets and lucky numbered days

Abstract

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to examine the stock return impact of “lucky” numbered days in markets dominated by Chinese participants. The existence of such patterns might present arbitrage opportunities for investors who do not share a belief in the Chinese system of “lucky” numbers.Design/methodology/approach– In univariate and multivariate analyses, the author examines the statistical significance of return differences between “lucky” numbered days and other days. The author examines samples which only consider single digit days and months, and the author also considers samples based on the last digit of the day or month. Based on the findings in these tests, the author designs and tests a trading strategy on the Shenzhen Exchange that produces significant risk-adjusted returns in excess of the buy-and-hold return on the Shenzhen Composite Index.Findings– The author shows that “lucky” numbered dates impact stock returns in Chinese markets and demonstrate a “lucky” number date trading strategy for the Shenzhen market that produces risk-adjusted returns in excess of the market return.Originality/value– Prior research on home address numbers and stock trading codes shows that, in markets dominated by Chinese participants, assets with identifiers containing numbers defined byFeng Shuias “lucky” sell at a premium and assets with identifiers containing “unlucky” numbers sell at a discount. In such markets, prices are more likely to end in a “lucky” number than an “unlucky” number. Chinese firms also tend to price their shares at IPO using “lucky” numbers and avoiding “unlucky” numbers. The author extends this literature to examine whether dates containing “lucky” and “unlucky” numbers experience stock returns significantly different than other days on Chinese stock exchanges.