Stock returns and volatility: An empirical investigation of the German and French equity markets

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between stock returns and volatility in the German and French equity markets. Under the assumption of a conditional student t density function, the results indicate that stock returns in both countries may be described by the GARCH (1,1) model. The results also provide evidence that the 1987 stock market crash affected the mean-variance relationship in both countries, and the model's fit is significantly improved by explicitly taking the crash into account. Interestingly, the index of relative risk aversion is positive in both countries but is only significant in Germany when the stock market crash is incorporated into the analysis. The results also reveal that settlement delays significantly affect return in both countries and volatility in France. Furthermore accounting for structural shifts is important in ascertaining the relationship between stock returns and volatility.