Stock price delay and the cross-section of expected returns: A story of night and day

Abstract

We examine how individual stock price reacts to intraday and overnight market information. By examining stock betas, we document a stark gap between day beta and night beta and nontrivial asynchronous beta, which captures the slow diffusion of information. We provide evidence that this information delay can predict future stock returns over a one-month period. Long-short portfolios sorted on the gap between day beta and night beta and asynchronous beta generate raw returns of 0.8% and 0.39% and risk-adjusted alphas of 0.77% and 0.28% per month. These results are robust to alternative asset pricing models and when controlling for firm characteristics, such as size, book-to-market ratios, liquidity, investor recognition and limits-to-arbitrage characteristics. We also explore the heterogeneity of the information delay premium and find that the predictive power of information delay for future return is stronger among small, value firms, less visible firms, illiquid firms and firms with higher limit-to-arbitrage. We also provide evidence that our measure of price delay indeed offers incremental information for cross-section return prediction after we explicitly control for the conventional measure of Hou and Moskowitz (2005)’s price delay.