Stock Crash and R2 around a Catastrophic Event: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake

Abstract

We investigate the effects of opacity of information a firm discloses on stock price synchronicity and crash risk. We develop an analytical model in the presence of firm-specific information and market-wide information. Stock price synchronicity is predicted to increase with the opacity of firmspecific information. Our model also reveals that stock crashes are more frequent and more severe for the opaque firms. These predictions are confirmed empirically. Further, our model predicts that after a catastrophic event stock prices become synchronous with the market because of investors’ limited attention, and hence the frequency and severity of a stock crash increase. We use the Great East Japan Earthquake as a representative catastrophe to examine these implications, and provide support for the model. Finally, we find that a stock price of a firm disclosing opaque information tends to be synchronous with the market, and hence experiences a more serious crash from the earthquake, which is consistent with the model.