Stock Closing Price Prediction with Machine Learning Algorithms: PETKM Stock Example In BIST

Abstract

This study predicts the stock price of Petkim Petrokimya Holding Corp. (PETKM), which is listed in Borsa Istanbul (BIST), using PETKM stock price, US dollar (USD/TRY) price and BIST Chemical, Petroleum & Plastic (XKMYA) index price. A time series data set with three inputs and one output is created using these data. Random Forest Regression (RFR), Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) algorithms are used in the prediction model. The success of these methods is compared using performance metrics such as MSE, RMSE, MAE, and R2. According to the calculated error metrics, LSTM and RFR algorithms gave better results than CNN with an MSE value less than 0.02. However, the fact that the R2 values of the most successful models created with all three algorithms were greater than 95% revealed that all the algorithms mentioned could be used to estimate this data set.