Abstract
This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty in per-recruit analysis for small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) fisheries in China, in which credible estimates of life history parameters from Bayesian inference were used to generate the distribution for a quantity of interest. Small yellow croakers were divided into five spatial groups. The status of each group was examined using a yield-per-recruit (YPR) model and a spawning stock biomass-per-recruit (SSBPR) model. The optimal length at first capture (Lcopt) was proposed to recover the biomass. The maximum observed age in the current stocks (3 years) and the maximum recorded age (≥20 years) were adopted in per-recruit analysis. Our results suggest that the framework can quantify uncertainty well in the output of per-recruit analysis for small yellow croaker. It is suited to other fish species. The SSBPR at FMSY (SSBPRMSY) is a better benchmark than the spawning potential ratio (SPR) at FMSY because SSBPRMSY had a unimodal distribution. The SSBPR analysis can lead to a more conservative Lcopt than the YPR analysis. The key factor influencing the assessment conclusions may be the growth parameters rather than the natural mortality rate for a stock with a younger maximum age. Overfishing likely occurred for all groups and recruitment overfishing may not occur if the maximum age is maintained at 3 years. Increasing lengths at first capture to the recommended values can help this population recover. However, Fcur is too high for small yellow croakers to attain the maximum recorded age. Both reducing fishing mortality rate and increasing length at first capture are needed to attain the maximum recorded age.
Highlights
Per-recruit models such as the yield-per-recruit (YPR) model and the spawning stock biomass-perrecruit (SSBPR) model are commonly used in fish stock assessments
Fcur was significantly higher than fishing mortality rate to achieve MSY (FMSY) for each group because it was greater than the upper limit of 95% credible interval (Table 2)
We checked the status of five groups of small yellow croakers and derived optimal lengths at first capture when SSBPRMSY was used as the benchmark
Summary
Per-recruit models such as the yield-per-recruit (YPR) model and the spawning stock biomass-perrecruit (SSBPR) model are commonly used in fish stock assessments. These models can produce YPR and SSBPR at a fishing mortality rate (F), and biological reference points. Per-recruit models are defined mainly by fish life history parameters, such as the parameters on growth, length–weight relationship (LWR), and natural mortality. Per-Recruit Analysis for Small Yellow Croaker dependent on a combination of different types of life history parameters (Restrepo and Fox, 1988). The inherent uncertainty surrounding life history parameters can lead to uncertainty in per-recruit analysis (Chang et al, 2009). Quantifying uncertainty in assessment results can enhance decision making for fishery resource management and help determine the best harvest strategies (Gavaris, 1993; Doll et al, 2017)
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