Abstract
This study presents a stochastic typhoon model (STM) for estimating the characteristics of typhoons in the present and future climate conditions. Differences of statistical characteristics between present and future typhoons were estimated from projections by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) under a climate change scenario and are taken into account in the stochastic modelling of future typhoons as a climate change signal. From the STM results which utilize the Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the frequency of typhoon landfall in Osaka bay area, Japan, will decrease, although the mean value of atmospheric central pressure of typhoon will not change significantly. The arrival probability of stronger typhoons will increase in the future climate scenario.
Highlights
INTRODUCTIONIntensity of tropical cyclones (typhoons, hurricanes and cyclones) in the future will possible increase with the increase of sea surface temperature, as reported in the fourth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, 2007)
Intensity of tropical cyclones in the future will possible increase with the increase of sea surface temperature, as reported in the fourth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, 2007)
There are several stochastic typhoon model (STM) which artificially generate typhoons that can be applied in coastal engineering studies (e.g. Hatada and Yamaguchi, 1996; Kato et al, 2003; Hashimoto et al, 2004; Kawai et al, 2006, 2008) because STM is useful by statistically estimating typhoons tracks, the central atmospheric pressures and moving speeds and so on
Summary
Intensity of tropical cyclones (typhoons, hurricanes and cyclones) in the future will possible increase with the increase of sea surface temperature, as reported in the fourth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, 2007). Hatada and Yamaguchi, 1996; Kato et al, 2003; Hashimoto et al, 2004; Kawai et al, 2006, 2008) because STM is useful by statistically estimating typhoons tracks, the central atmospheric pressures and moving speeds and so on Their simulation areas typically lie to the north of 23N because most of these studies focused on typhoon characteristics around Japan. A STM is a model using the Monte Carlo simulation and it calculates key typhoon parameters as functions of central pressure, travelling speed and direction along its trajectory, based on statistical characteristics of observed data. Typhoon moving direction can be estimated by using Hubeny's distance calculation formula
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