Abstract
BackgroundAlcohol-to-jet (ATJ) is one of the technical feasible biofuel technologies. It produces jet fuel from sugary, starchy, and lignocellulosic biomass, such as sugarcane, corn grain, and switchgrass, via fermentation of sugars to ethanol or other alcohols. This study assesses the ATJ biofuel production pathway for these three biomass feedstocks, and advances existing techno-economic analyses of biofuels in three ways. First, we incorporate technical uncertainty for all by-products and co-products though statistical linkages between conversion efficiencies and input and output levels. Second, future price uncertainty is based on case-by-case time-series estimation, and a local sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to each uncertain variable. Third, breakeven price distributions are developed to communicate the inherent uncertainty in breakeven price. This research also considers uncertainties in utility input requirements, fuel and by-product outputs, as well as price uncertainties for all major inputs, products, and co-products. All analyses are done from the perspective of a private firm.ResultsThe stochastic dominance results of net present values (NPV) and breakeven price distributions show that sugarcane is the lowest cost feedstock over the entire range of uncertainty with the least risks, followed by corn grain and switchgrass, with the mean breakeven jet fuel prices being $0.96/L ($3.65/gal), $1.01/L ($3.84/gal), and $1.38/L ($5.21/gal), respectively. The variation of revenues from by-products in corn grain pathway can significantly impact its profitability. Sensitivity analyses show that technical uncertainty significantly impacts breakeven price and NPV distributions.ConclusionsTechnical uncertainty is critical in determining the economic performance of the ATJ fuel pathway. Technical uncertainty needs to be considered in future economic analyses. The variation of revenues from by-products plays a significant role in profitability. With the distribution of breakeven prices, potential investors can apply whatever risk preferences they like to determine an appropriate bid or breakeven price that matches their risk profile.
Highlights
Alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) is one of the technical feasible biofuel technologies
Bagasse produced after juice extraction from sugarcane, and biomass residues generated after sugar extraction and fermentation from switchgrass can be co-fired to meet the utility requirements of the biorefinery, and excess electricity can be exported to the grid [25]
The results indicate the minimum and maximum values that the net present values (NPV) can achieve with variation of each individual parameter with the uncertainty ranges assumed in this analysis [51, 52]
Summary
Alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) is one of the technical feasible biofuel technologies. It produces jet fuel from sugary, starchy, and lignocellulosic biomass, such as sugarcane, corn grain, and switchgrass, via fermentation of sugars to ethanol or other alcohols. In the absence of mitigation measures, total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with aviation are expected to be 400– 600% higher in 2050 than in 2010, driven by an increase in global air traffic of up to seven times [3]. The United States (US) Federal Aviation Administration [5] (FAA) aims for carbon-neutral growth of aviation by 2020 These goals are to be achieved by improvements in aircraft operations, airport and air traffic management, airframe and engine technologies, as well as through the large-scale introduction of biofuels with significantly lower GHG emissions than petroleum-derived jet fuel, on a life cycle basis [6].
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