Stochastic simulation of seawater intrusion in the Longkou area of China based on the Monte Carlo method.

Abstract

Seawater intrusion is a common groundwater pollution problem, which has a great impact on ecological environment and economic development. In this paper, a numerical simulation model of variable density groundwater was constructed to simulate and predict the future seawater intrusion in Longkou city, Shandong Province of China. The influence of the sensitive parameter uncertainty of the model on the simulation results was evaluated by using the Monte Carlo method. In order to reduce the computational load from repeatedly calling the simulation model, the surrogate model was established by using the support vector regression (SVR) method. After training, the correlation coefficient R2 of the input-output relationship between the SVR surrogate model and the seawater intrusion simulation model reached 0.9957, with an average relative error of 0.2%, indicating that the surrogate model has a high fitting accuracy. Stochastic simulations of seawater intrusion showed that the seawater intrusion in the Longkou area will gradually aggravate at a slow rate, and the increase of seawater intrusion in the study area after 30years was expected to range from - 6.03% to 7.37% at the 80% confidence level.