Stochastic Simulation of Pasture-Raised Beef Production Systems and Implications for the Appalachian Cow-Calf Sector

Abstract

ABSTRACT Cow-calf enterprises provide significant opportunity for supplemental income to small-scale farmers in Appalachia, despite considerable production and economic uncertainty. To assess the viability of pasture-raised beef systems as alternatives to conventional production and marketing paradigms, stochastic budgets representative of several hypothetical producers of each type were constructed and evaluated via Monte Carlo techniques in terms of relative profitability and risk. Statistical distributions were utilized to capture seasonal variability in output prices, pasture availability and animal performance. Results suggest that the intensive pasture and animal management required for pasture-raised production yield greater profit and less economic risk than conventional strategies.