Stochastic simulation of groundwater dynamics based on grey theory and seasonal decomposition model in a coastal aquifer of South China

Abstract

Accurate and reliable prediction of groundwater level is a critical component in coastal water management. It is important to find a suitable model with acceptable accuracy. This paper presents a comparative study with seasonal decomposition method of time series analysis and GM (1,1) method, which are applied to test the model accuracy by simulating groundwater levels of two representative wells located at a coastal aquifer in Fujian Province, South China. The average monthly groundwater level was monitored during 2006–2011, the data set from 2006–2010 was used for model establishment, and that of 2011 used for predicting the dynamic change of groundwater level. The results indicate that the multiplicative model fits better than the additive model for seasonal decomposition method. Finally, the effectiveness of the model and prediction accuracy was evaluated based on root mean square error (RMSE) and regression coefficient ( R2 ). From the obtained results, it is concluded that the GM (1,1) method can be a promising tool to simulate and forecast groundwater level and serve as an alternative physically based model.