Stochastic simulation of economic values and their standard deviations for production and functional traits in dairy cattle under current and future danish production circumstances

Abstract

The objectives were to derive economic values (EVs) and their standard deviations for dairy cow traits in Denmark under future possible production circumstances using a stochastic bio-economic farm model. EVs were derived for three different scenarios with the first representing current Danish production circumstances. The other two scenarios were based on a report with predictions of expected developments in the Danish agricultural sector with respect to structural development and market situation. The three scenarios differed with respect to herd size, level of trait, prices and presence of milk quota. EVs for functional traits differed only slightly between scenarios, but without a milk quota the relative importance of milk yield compared to the functional traits increased. Under current production circumstances with milk quota, EVs of milk yield and body weight were 0.13 and −0.51 €/kg per cow-year. For milk fever, mastitis, retained placenta and laminitis EVs were −277, −124, −39 and −127 €/incidence/cow-year. The EVs for involuntary culling, stillbirth, conception rate and days from first calving to first heat were −5.2, −0.61, 1.69 €/%/cow-year and −0.62 €/day/cow-year. Standard deviations of EVs expressing variation in realised farm profit were lower in a situation with fixed number of cows on the farm than in a situation with milk quota.