Stochastic Shortest Path Finding in Path-Centric Uncertain Road Networks

Abstract

We study stochastic routing in the PAth-CEntric (PACE) uncertain road network model. In the PACE model, uncertain travel times are associated with not only edges but also some paths. The uncertain travel times associated with paths are able to well capture the travel time dependency among different edges. This significantly improves the accuracy of travel time distribution estimations for arbitrary paths, which is a fundamental functionality in stochastic routing, compared to classic uncertain road network models where uncertain travel times are associated with only edges. Based on the PACE model, we investigate the shortest path with on-time arrival reliability (SPOTAR) problem. Given a source, a destination, and a travel time budget, the SPOTAR problem aims at finding a path that maximizes the on-time arrival probability. We develop a generic algorithm with different speedup strategies to solve the SPOTAR problem under the PACE model. Empirical studies with substantial GPS trajectory data offer insight into the design properties of the proposed algorithm and confirm that the algorithm is effective.