Stochastic sensitivity technique in a persistence analysis of randomly forced population systems with multiple trophic levels

Abstract

Motivated by important ecological applications we study how noise can reduce a number of trophic levels in hierarchically related multidimensional population systems. A nonlinear model with three trophic levels under the influence of external stochastic forcing is considered as a basic conceptual example. We analyze a probabilistic mechanism of noise-induced extinction of separate populations in this “prey-predator-top predator” system. We propose a new general mathematical approach for the estimation of the proximity of equilibrium regimes of this stochastic model to hazardous borders where abrupt changes in dynamics of ecological systems can occur. Our method is based on the stochastic sensitivity function technique and visualization method of confidence domains. Constructive abilities of this mathematical approach are demonstrated in the analysis of different scenaria of noise-induced reducing of the number of trophic levels.