Stochastic parameterizations of biogeochemical uncertainties in a 1/4° NEMO/PISCES model for probabilistic comparisons with ocean color data

Abstract

In spite of recent advances, biogeochemical models are still unable to represent the full complexity of natural ecosystems. Their formulations are mainly based on empirical laws involving many parameters. Improving biogeochemical models therefore requires to properly characterize model uncertainties and their consequences. Subsequently, this paper investigates the potential of using random processes to simulate some uncertainties of the 1/4° coupled Physical–Biogeochemical NEMO/PISCES model of the North Atlantic ocean.Starting from a deterministic simulation performed with the original PISCES formulation, we propose a generic method based on AR(1) random processes to generate perturbations with temporal and spatial correlations. These perturbations are introduced into the model formulations to simulate 2 classes of uncertainties: the uncertainties on biogeochemical parameters and the uncertainties induced by unresolved scales in the presence of non-linear processes. Using these stochastic parameterizations, a probabilistic version of PISCES is designed and a 60-member ensemble simulation is performed.With respect to the simulation of chlorophyll, the relevance of the probabilistic configuration and the impacts of these stochastic parameterizations are assessed. In particular, it is shown that the ensemble simulation is in good agreement with the SeaWIFS ocean color data. Using these observations, the statistical consistency (reliability) of the ensemble is evaluated with rank histograms. Finally, the benefits expected from the probabilistic description of uncertainties (model error) are discussed in the context of future ocean color data assimilation.