Stochastic paleoclimatology: Modeling the EPICA ice core climate records.

Abstract

We analyze and model the stochastic behavior of paleoclimate time series and assess the implications for the coupling of climate variables during the Pleistocene glacial cycles. We examine 800 kiloyears of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and temperature proxy data from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) Dome-C ice core, which are characterized by 100 ky glacial cycles overlain by fluctuations across a wide range of timescales. We quantify this behavior through multifractal time-weighted detrended fluctuation analysis, which distinguishes near-red-noise and white-noise behavior below and above the 100 ky glacial cycle, respectively, in all records. This allows us to model each time series as a one-dimensional periodic nonautonomous stochastic dynamical system, and assess the stability of physical processes and the fidelity of model-simulated time series. We extend this approach to a four-variable model with intervariable coupling terms, which we interpret in terms of possible interrelationships among the four time series. Within the framework of our coupling coefficients, we find that carbon dioxide and temperature act to stabilize each other and methane and nitrous oxide, whereas the latter two destabilize each other and carbon dioxide and temperature. We also compute the response function for each pair of variables to assess the model performance by comparison to the data and confirm the model predictions regarding stability amongst variables. Taken together, our results are consistent with glacial pacing dominated by carbon dioxide and temperature that is modulated by terrestrial biosphere feedbacks associated with methane and nitrous oxide emissions.