Stochastic multi-site capacity planning of TFT-LCD manufacturing using expected shadow-price based decomposition

Abstract

This paper presents a stochastic optimization model and efficient decomposition algorithm for multi-site capacity planning under the uncertainty of the TFT-LCD industry. The objective of the stochastic capacity planning is to determine a robust capacity allocation and expansion policy hedged against demand uncertainties because the demand forecasts faced by TFT-LCD manufacturers are usually inaccurate and vary rapidly over time. A two-stage scenario-based stochastic mixed integer programming model that extends the deterministic multi-site capacity planning model proposed by Chen et al. (2010) [1] is developed to discuss the multi-site capacity planning problem in the face of uncertain demands. In addition a three-step methodology is proposed to generate discrete demand scenarios within the stochastic optimization model by approximating the stochastic continuous demand process fitted from the historical data. An expected shadow-price based decomposition, a novel algorithm for the stage decomposition approach, is developed to obtain a near-optimal solution efficiently through iterative procedures and parallel computing. Preliminary computational study shows that the proposed decomposition algorithm successfully addresses the large-scale stochastic capacity planning model in terms of solution quality and computation time. The proposed algorithm also outperforms the plain use of the CPLEX MIP solver as the problem size becomes larger and the number of demand scenarios increases.