Stochastic multi-criteria decision making framework based on SMAA-VIKOR for reservoir flood control operation

Abstract

ABSTRACT In reservoir flood control operation, candidate reservoir operation alternatives are evaluated, ranked and selected by a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method. However, deterministic methods cannot handle MCDM problems where uncertainties exist in both criteria performance values (PVs) and criteria weights (CWs). To solve the issue, a SMAA-VIKOR model integrating stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) theory with the Viekriterijumsko Kompromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR) method is established based on Aydogan and Ozmen (2017). Moreover, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the model’s decision making results, including risk assessment and sensitivity analysis. The case study applied to a flood control system in Dadu River in China indicates that the SMAA-VIKOR model can quickly identify the optimal alternative that meets the subjective preferences of decision makers, and has remarkable advantages compared to the traditional SMAA-2 model and the deterministic VIKOR method, which can provide theoretical support for making a robust reservoir release decision.