Stochastic mortality forecasts for Bangladesh.

Abstract

Mortality forecasts are essential part for policymaking in any aging society. In recent years, methods to model and forecast mortality have improved considerably. Among them, Lee-Carter method is one of the most influential method. In this paper, Lee-Carter method is applied to forecast mortality and life expectancy of Bangladesh. A functional data analysis approach is used to decompose the smoothed log-mortality rates in Lee-Carter framework for higher goodness-of-fit of the models and for longer forecast horizons. Bangladesh has been experiencing a mortality transition and has gained life expectancy in last few decades. The fitted model here showed higher pace of mortality decline for women in Bangladesh than that of men. The forecasts showed continuation of mortality improvement in long run and by 2060 life expectancy at birth is expected to reach over 80 years for both sexes in Bangladesh. The study also predicts the effect of reduction in infant mortality on the life expectancy in Bangladesh.