Stochastic Modelling of the Transmission Dynamics of Measles with Vaccination Control

Abstract

Measles is still endemic in many parts of the world including developed nations, despite the availability of the infectious disease vaccine since 1963. Elimination of measles requires maintaining the effective reproduction number by achieving and maintaining low levels of susceptibility R0 <1. In this project, we concentrate on the stochastic modelling of the transmission dynamics of measles with vaccination control. We have obtained the stochastic differential equations model from the deterministic model. Simulation of the stochastic differential equations model have been performed as well as the deterministic model. The stochastic differential equations model has described the transmission dynamics of measles with more information compared to the deterministic counterpart. Mathematical technique used in the simulation of the stochastic differential equations model is Euler-Maruyama numerical scheme and discussions of the model.