Abstract
Two stochastic models are presented of the daily global solar radiation obtained from three years of data measured on a horizontal surface in Marrakesh, Morocco (latitude 31°37′N, longitude 08°02′W, elevation 463 m). The development of these models is based on the removal of the annual periodicity and seasonal variation of solar radiation using two types of normalisation. The first model is developed using a classical decomposition of the daily radiation as the sum of two components: a trend component and a stochastic component. This model is most useful for long simulated sequences. The second model is developed using a non-dimensional variable, the clearness index, which is modelled as a stochastic process after a preliminary transformation leading to a stationary time series. Both models have satisfactorily passed validation tests for forecasting and simulation of daily global solar radiation data.
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