Stochastic Modeling of Net Radiation conditioned on Wind Speed

Abstract

This study aims at modeling net radiation conditioned on wind speed in Port Harcourt using the stochastic (Markov chain model) approach. Thirty-four (34) years data (1977-2010) on daily maximum and minimum relative humidity, maximum and minimum air temperature, solar irradiance and wind speed were sourced from the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and used in the analysis. A two – state (surplus net radiation conditioned on high wind speed and surplus net radiation conditioned on low wind speed) Markov Chain model was developed and used in the course of this work. The result revealed that net radiation is surplus all through the year and monthly steady state probabilities (long run dependence) of surplus net radiation conditioned on low wind speed dominate all through the year. Further analysis with the model showed that surplus net radiation conditioned on low wind speed would occur for 2.44 days and surplus net radiation conditioned on high wind speed for 1.69 days on the average, resulting to a hot weather and climate