Stochastic model predictive control — how does it work?

Abstract

Stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) provides a probabilistic framework for MPC of systems with stochastic uncertainty. A key feature of SMPC is the inclusion of chance constraints, which enables a systematic trade-off between attainable control performance and probability of state constraint violations in a stochastic setting. This paper presents an overview of core concepts in SMPC in relation to MPC and stochastic optimal control, with numerical illustrations on a typical chemical process. Estimation of stochastic disturbances as well as the impact of estimation quality of stochastic disturbances on the SMPC performance are discussed. Some avenues for future research in SMPC are suggested.