Stochastic Model of Rural Agribusiness Supply Chain: A Case Study of Gatsibo District

Abstract

The current economy of most developing countries is based on agriculture and its related operations that serve as the main entrance into the emerging industrial transformation. The lookout focuses on the integration of rural areas as drivers of a meaningful part of the land output. The concern has been to curiously follow the changes in the agricultural production environment from a global perspective of the market economy and its integration in the current economic revolution/transformation. The branches of deepening the understanding of this issue enroot in levelling the optimization of the benefit at all extremes of the processes involved in decentralized agribusiness functions. This study is essentially targeting to explain the current agriculture supply chain formula in rural parts of Rwanda for a more competitive equilibrium of the agricultural production planning and inventory and the distribution as the rural market nodes. The methodological intention was to drive a stochastic view of the operational transactions through the flow of the financial means (income from job for consumers and revenues from sales for rice farmers) and the likelihood to switch (respond to one’s reactions or actions) to one of the nodes, if any. The results show that the financial security on both parties is not a driver to quicken the transactions or sustain any change in the supply chain and it calls for exogenous factors, in short term, to reverse the trends.