Stochastic Model of Egg Production in Broiler Breeders

Abstract

A stochastic model was developed to simulate the egg production of broiler breeders in response to changes in BW. The first step involved the construction of a diagram incorporating dependent and independent variables and their relationships to ovulation rate and egg production from 8 equations based on experimental results. The model was based on existing experimental data, and stochastic processes were invoked for 4 input parameters. Egg production curves and total egg production were simulated using inputs from a management manual, commercial trial data, and experimental results and were compared with actual rates of lay. The correlations between observed and predicted egg production were high (R(2) = 0.93 to 0.98). The assumptions made in developing the model were described and gaps in biological knowledge were identified.