Stochastic Model Bias Correction of Dynamic System Responses for Simulation-Based Reliability Analysis

Abstract

Reliability analysis based on the simulation model could be wrong if the simulation model were not validated. Various model bias correction approaches have been developed to improve the model credibility by adding the identified model bias to the baseline simulation model. However, little research has been conducted for simulation models with dynamic system responses. This paper presents such a framework for model bias correction of dynamic system responses for reliability analysis by addressing three technical components including: i) a validation metric for dynamic system responses, ii) an effective approach for dynamic model bias calibration and approximation, and iii) reliability analysis considering the dynamic model bias. Two case studies including a thermal problem and a corroded beam problem are employed to demonstrate the proposed approaches for simulation-based reliability analysis.