Stochastic model and analysis of uncertain stresses characteristics for embankment in permafrost regions

Abstract

Taking the randomness of mechanical parameters and thermal regime into account, a stochastic analysis model is established for investigating the uncertain stresses characteristics of embankment in permafrost regions. The stochastic finite element formulae are obtained by Neumann Stochastic Finite Element Method (NSFEM), and a stochastic coupling program is compiled by Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB) software. Using our program, the stochastic stresses fields of an embankment in a permafrost region are obtained and analyzed. The results provide a new way to predict the stresses characteristics of the embankment in permafrost regions, and it shows that the stochastic temperature has a different influence on the mean stresses and standard deviation, and the larger value is at a different location. The standard deviations in stresses increase with time when considering the stochastic effect of temperature and parameters, which imply that the results of conventional deterministic analysis may be far from the true value. It can improve our understanding of the stochastic stresses fields of embankments and provide a theoretical basis for engineering reliability analysis and design in permafrost regions.