Abstract
It is now widely known that the presence of geometric imperfections in shell structures constitutes an important contribution to the discrepancy between theoretical and experimentally realizable ultimate loads governed by buckling. The present paper describes a method by which an actual initial imperfection field may be estimated using the service load response of a shell structure. The approach requires solving a stochastic inverse problem wherein uncertainty regarding initial imperfection predictions is expressed within the context of a Bayesian posterior distribution. The proposed approach could be applied to condition assessment and performance evaluation activities in practice.
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