Abstract

The goal of this paper is to define stochastic integrals and to solve stochastic differential equations for typical paths taking values in a possibly infinite dimensional separable Hilbert space without imposing any probabilistic structure. In the spirit of [33, 37] and motivated by the pricing duality result obtained in [4] we introduce an outer measure as a variant of the pathwise minimal superhedging price where agents are allowed to trade not only in $\omega $ but also in $\int \omega \,d\omega :=\omega ^{2} -\langle \omega \rangle $ and where they are allowed to include beliefs in future paths of the price process expressed by a prediction set. We then call a property to hold true on typical paths if the set of paths where the property fails is null with respect to our outer measure. It turns out that adding the second term $\omega ^{2} -\langle \omega \rangle $ in the definition of the outer measure enables to directly construct stochastic integrals which are continuous, even for typical paths taking values in an infinite dimensional separable Hilbert space. Moreover, when restricting to continuous paths whose quadratic variation is absolutely continuous with uniformly bounded derivative, a second construction of model-free stochastic integrals for typical paths is presented, which then allows to solve in a model-free way stochastic differential equations for typical paths.

Highlights

  • In this paper we investigate the problem of constructing pathwise stochastic integrals as well as solutions of stochastic differential equations without a reference probability measure

  • It is well-known that defining a stochastic integral is a highly non-trivial problem and cannot be deduced directly from classical measure-theoretical calculus, as in general, stochastic processes describing the noise of the dynamics do not have finite

  • In Bichteler [9] and Karandikar [22] a pathwise construction of the stochastic integral was proposed for càdlàg integrands which enables to solve the so-called aggregation problem of defining a stochastic integral which coincides with the classical stochastic integral simultaneously for all semimartingale measures

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Summary

Introduction

In this paper we investigate the problem of constructing pathwise stochastic integrals as well as solutions of stochastic differential equations without a reference probability measure. Vovk’s approach was employed in Perkowski–Prömel [33] to define an outer measure which can be interpreted as the pathwise minimal superhedging price motivated from financial mathematics Using their outer measure they constructed a model-free stochastic integral which is continuous for typical price paths and connected their typical paths with rough paths by demonstrating that every typical price path possess an Itô rough path. To be able to solve stochastic differential equations pathwise, a second construction of model-free stochastic integrals is provided when restricting to all paths possessing an absolutely continuous quadratic variation whose derivative is uniformly bounded, see Theorem 2.9.

Setup and main results
Proofs of our main results
Duality result for second-order Vovk’s outer measure

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