Stochastic infection risk models for aircraft seat assignment considering passenger vaccination status and seat location

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We study optimal aircraft seat assignment for infectious diseases in view of the stochastic risk of infection for a passenger assigned to a seat. The stochastic risk is based on the passengers’ vaccination status and the different risk probability distributions corresponding to seat locations at window, middle, or aisle. In addition, the influence of groups of passengers who prefer to be seated together on the risk of infection in the cabin is also analyzed. A stochastic programming technique is applied to develop both non-grouped and grouped scenario-based models. The objective is to minimize the risk of infection for the worst-case scenario, as formulated by the Min-Max objective approach. Numerical tests utilizing statistical data from 2,369 flights in Taiwan were performed. The results show that the consideration of passengers’ vaccination status during seat assignment is useful, reducing the average risk of infection in the cabin by half. Grouped seat assignment does not seem to have a significant influence on the risk of infection, with an increase of only 1.28 and 1.25 times compared with non-grouped seat assignment. The recommendations are that more heavily vaccinated passengers be assigned to aisle seats, while passengers who have received fewer doses be assigned to window seats. In addition, considering the limited impact of group seating on the risk of infection, it may not be necessary for an airline to decline to accommodate such requests.