Stochastic hydrogeologic units and hydrogeologic properties development for total-system performance assessments. Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

Abstract

A stochastic representation of the lithologic units and associated hydrogeologic parameters of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository are developed for use in performance-assessment calculations, including the Total-System Performance Assessment for Yucca Mountain-SNL Second Iteration (TSPA-1993). A simplified lithologic model has been developed based on the physical characteristics of the welded and nonwelded units at Yucca Mountain. Ten hydrogeologic units are developed from site-specific data (lithologic and geophysical logs and core photographs) obtained from the unsaturated and saturated zones. The three-dimensional geostatistical model of the ten hydrogeologic units is based on indicator-coding techniques and improves on the two-dimensional model developed for TSPA91. The hydrogeologic properties (statistics and probability distribution functions) are developed from the results of laboratory tests and in-situ aquifer tests or are derived through fundamental relationships. Hydrogeologic properties for matrix properties, bulk conductivities, and fractures are developed from existing site specific data. Extensive data are available for matrix porosity, bulk density, and matrix saturated conductivity. For other hydrogeologic properties, the data are minimal or nonexistent. Parameters for the properties are developed as beta probability distribution functions. For the model units without enough data for analysis, parameters are developed as analogs to existing units. A relational, analytic approach coupled with bulk conductivity parameters is used to develop fracture parameters based on the smooth-wall-parallel-plate theory. An analytic method is introduced for scaling small-core matrix properties to the hydrogeologic unit scales.