Stochastic finite modeling of ground motion for March 5, 2012, Mw 4.6 earthquake and scenario greater magnitude earthquake in the proximity of Delhi

Abstract

In present work, seismic hazard from future earthquake is worked out for Delhi region in terms of different strong motion parameters such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), characteristics frequency and spectral acceleration (Sa). The earthquake of March 5, 2012, is taken as key earthquake for synthesis. Stochastic finite modeling technique based on dynamic corner frequency initially is used to produce and match the ground motion histories where 2012 earthquake was recorded. The matching is attained in terms of PGA, response spectra and duration. Once a good match is found, the ground motion is estimated for higher magnitude earthquakes (i.e., Mw 6.0 and Mw 6.5). Our work demonstrates that a Mw 6.0 magnitude earthquake in proximity of Delhi will deliver PGA estimations of 20–209 gal (1 cm/s2 = 1 gal), the lower values occurring at hard rock sites like NDI (IMD) and DJB. Similarly Mw 6.5 earthquake may produce PGA values ranging between 30 and 323 gal. Finally seismic hazard in Delhi and surrounding regions is estimated from Mw 6.5 magnitude earthquake in terms of PGA, Sa and predominant period. Our computation specifies that at short period, the small structures toward eastern and north-western part of Delhi city may be affected by the earthquakes. For a case of 0.5 s period, Sa values are distributed uniformly at all the places in Delhi, indicating that the buildings with five floors or so may be in danger from future higher magnitude earthquakes. The Sa maps acquired in this study can be utilized to survey the seismic danger of the region and identify vulnerably susceptible areas in and around Delhi from future higher magnitude earthquake.