Abstract
Explosion risk analysis (ERA) is an effective method to investigate potential accidents in hydrogen production facilities. The ERA suffers from significant hydrogen dispersion-explosion scenario-related parametric uncertainty. To better understand the uncertainty in ERA results, thousands of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) scenarios need to be computed. Such a large number of CFD simulations are computationally expensive. This study presents a stochastic procedure by integrating a Bayesian Regularization Artificial Neural Network (BRANN) methodology with ERA to effectively manage the uncertainty as well as reducing the stimulation intensity in hydrogen explosion risk study. This BRANN method randomly generates thousands of non-simulation data presenting the relevant hydrogen dispersion and explosion physics. The generated data is used to develop scenario-based probability models, which are then used to estimate the exceedance frequency of maximum overpressure. The performance of the proposed approach is verified by analyzing the parametric sensitivity on the exceedance frequency curve and comparing the results against the traditional ERA approach.
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