Stochastic Event-Based Approach to Generate Concurrent Hourly Mean Sea Level Pressure and Wind Sequences for Estuarine Flood Risk Assessment

Abstract

The determination of the annual exceedence probability (AEP) of extreme water levels in complex estuarine systems is an important and challenging issue in flood management. Extreme estuarine levels are caused by the combined effects of river flows, local winds, and coastal ocean levels. This paper describes a stochastic, event-based approach for generating concurrent hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind speed, which are needed in a larger project to derive stochastic hourly river flows, winds, and coastal ocean levels to drive a hydrodynamic model for estuarine flood level simulation. The minimum MSLP versus rainfall and maximum wind speed versus rainfall relationships for the extreme flood events at the daily time scale are first used to generate minimum daily MSLP and maximum daily wind speed using a nonparametric resampling method. The generated minimum daily MSLP and maximum daily wind speed are then used to scale concurrent hourly MSLP and wind speed sequences resampled from the historical ...