Abstract
A probabilistic approach to the evaluation of the maximum torsional torques induced in turbine-generator shafts during faulty synchronisation is presented. This approach is based on utilisation of the conditional probability theorem to assess these torques. In this context, investigations have been conducted on a large turbine-generator model taking into consideration the uncertainty of several factors associated with the practical operation of a power system. The results of these investigations are presented in the form of discrete probability distributions of the maximum torsional torques induced in the turbine-generator shaft sections.
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