Abstract
We constructed a stochastic bio-economic model to determine the optimal cost-efficient surveillance program for bovine tuberculosis. The surveillance programs differed in combinations of one or more detection methods and/or sampling frequency. Stochastic input variables in the epidemiological module described the dynamics of infection and the probability of detection. By means of an efficiency frontier, the trade-off between the expected cost and the epidemiological risk parameter relating to the outbreak size was evaluated. The surveillance scheme based on visual inspection of lesions on carcasses at slaughter was optimal given the current prevalence of the disease in the Netherlands if the objective was to minimise the expected costs. However, the efficient set also included two other schemes: slaughterhouse inspection in combination with GAMMA-interferon testing of blood samples and slaughterhouse inspection in combination with two-stage tuberculin testing. The choice ultimately will depend on the risk attitude of the decision-maker; a more-stringent surveillance scheme will be enforced if the expected outbreak size is to be constrained. In future scenarios, ELISA testing of bulk-tank milk in combination with the current slaughterhouse inspection procedure would outperform the surveillance scheme of solely slaughterhouse inspection if ELISA testing of bulk-tank milk becomes feasible.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
