Stochastic dynamics in exotic and native blowflies: an analysis combining laboratory experiments and a two‐patch metapopulation model

Abstract

AbstractIn this study we explored the stochastic population dynamics of three exotic blowfly species,Chrysomya albiceps,Chrysomya megacephalaandChrysomya putoria, and two native species,Cochliomyia macellariaandLucilia eximia, by combining a density‐dependent growth model with a two‐patch metapopulation model. Stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were investigated by permitting random variations between predetermined demographic boundary values based on experimental data.Lucilia eximiaandChrysomya albicepswere the species most susceptible to the risk of local extinction.Cochliomyia macellaria,C. megacephalaandC. putoriaexhibited lower risks of extinction when compared to the other species. The simultaneous analysis of stochastic fecundity and survival revealed an increase in the extinction risk for all species. When stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were simulated together, the coupled populations were synchronized in the five species. These results are discussed, emphasizing biological invasion and interspecific interaction dynamics.