Abstract
India is one of the severely affected countries by the Covid-19 pandemic at present. Within the stochastic framework of the SEQIR model, we studied publicly available data of the Covid-19 patients in India and analysed possible impacts of quarantine and social distancing as controlling strategies for the pandemic. Our stochastic simulation results clearly show that proper quarantine and social distancing should be maintained right from the start of the pandemic and continued until its end for effective control. This calls for a more disciplined social lifestyle in the future. However, only social distancing and quarantine of the exposed population are found not sufficient enough to end the pandemic in India. Therefore, implementation of other stringent policies like complete lockdown as well as increased testing of susceptible populations is necessary. The demographic stochasticity, which is quite visible in the system dynamics, has a critical role in regulating and controlling the pandemic.
Highlights
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is a highly infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which can lead to severe complications such as Covid-19 pneumonia [1]
We imposed a stochastic approach to the SEQIR model of Figure 1, which takes into account the stochasticity that is present in the system dynamics
We have studied the SEQIR model in the context of Covid-19 disease dynamics in India and five seriously affected states using stochastic methods
Summary
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is a highly infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which can lead to severe complications such as Covid-19 pneumonia [1]. On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Covid-19 outbreak as a pandemic of special health attention [2]. As of 2 June 2020 (10:06 am CEST), the total number of confirmed cases globally is 6 140 934 with 373 548 deaths [2]. India is one of the countries severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. As of 2 June 2020 (7:45 pm IST), the total number of Covid-19 confirmed cases in India is 201 341 with 99 135 active cases and 5632 deaths [3]. The Indian Government, both at the central and state levels, has taken up special measures such as quarantine, social distancing and lockdown to prevent/intervene in the spread of Covid-19 across the country
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