Abstract
This paper describes a preliminary study to explore the use of Monte Carlo simulation to assess the reliability of structures in fire given uncertainty in the fire, thermal, and structural model parameters. The methodology requires (1) the probabilistic characterization of the uncertain parameters in the system, (2) a stochastic model for the thermo-structural response, and (3) a limit state function that describes the failure of the system. The study focuses on assessing the failure probability of a protected steel beam under natural fire exposure. The system was modeled stochastically using a series of sequentially coupled thermo-structural finite element analyses that were embedded within a Monte Carlo simulation. Although the example considered here is relatively simplistic in that it focuses on member level performance, it effectively demonstrates the application of the proposed reliability method and provides insight into the practicalities of extending the approach to more complex structural systems.
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