Stochastic analysis of estuarine hydraulics

Abstract

A new methodology is presented for the solution of the stochastic hydraulic equations characterizing steady, one-dimensional estuarine flow. The methodology is predicated on quasi-linearization, perturbation methods, and the finite difference approximation of the stochastic differential operators. Assuming Manning's roughness coefficient is the principal source of uncertainty in the model, stochastic equations are presented for the water depths and flow rates in the estuarine system. Moment equations are developed for the mean and variance of the water depths. The moment equations are compared with the results of Monte Carlo simulation experiments. The results confirm that for any spatial location in the estuary that (1) as the uncertainty in the channel roughness increases, the uncertainty in mean depth increases, and (2) the predicted mean depth will decrease with increasing uncertainty in Manning'sn. The quasi-analytical approach requires significantly less computer time than Monte Carlo simulations and provides explicit