Stochastic analysis of air–sea heat fluxes variability in the North Atlantic in 1979–2022 based on reanalysis data

Abstract

A dynamic stochastic model based on the Langevin stochastic differential equation is introduced for the reanalysis data of the ERA5 database to model and analyze the behavior of latent and sensible air–sea heat fluxes in the North Atlantic for the period 1979–2022. The point estimates of the random coefficients (the drift vector and the diffusion matrix) of this type of equation for the entire period under consideration are presented. The numerical methods and software tools for statistical analysis of time evolution of the coefficients as well as determination their relationships and the behavior of their maxima, averages and minima at various time intervals (days, months, years), are developed. A strong seasonality for the coefficients of the equation is demonstrated. The spatiotemporal variability of the dynamic and stochastic components of the coefficients of the Langevin equation and their relationship with jet streams of different regions of the North Atlantic is analyzed. The presence of non-trivial positive trends in the drift and diffusion coefficients, especially for the latent fluxes, within the interannual variability is demonstrated. One indicates a quantitative increase in the air–sea interaction on the interannual scale. Numerical estimation was carried out using high-performance computing cluster with software implementation in the Python programming language. The tools for dynamic visualization of various quantities on geographical maps of the region under consideration are also presented.