Abstract
A study of the stationary and sequential properties of daily global horizontal solar radiation is presented for Rabat (Morocco). The results from this analysis are essential for the analytic modelling of the long term performance of solar energy systems, and for the generation of synthetic daily solar radiation sequences. The only climatic information required is the monthly average of the clearness index. We show that the experimental data can be described by a linear auto-regressive stochastic model of first or second order, and that the probability density function PDF can be fitted by a simple, easy to calculate functional form. We also show that, by using this function, the clearness index sequences can be transformed into sequences with normal distribution but with the same auto-correlation properties. It becomes, then, easy to construct synthetic sequences of solar irradiation with the same statistical properties as the real data. These synthetic sequences are very useful for performance prediction of solar energy systems.
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