Abstract
The German Climate Action Plan targets an electric vehicle fleet of 6 million by 2030. However, from today’s perspective, we are far away from a path that is steep enough to reach this goal. In order to identify how different policy instruments can stimulate e-mobility diffusion in Germany, we build and calibrate an agent-based simulation model (ABM). The model allows for the consideration of the rich dynamics of social influence as well as the heterogeneity of actors and is flexible enough to be applied with other technologies. We simulate different policy scenarios against a business as usual (BAU) scenario. We show that with the currently implemented set of policies (BAU scenario), it is very unlikely that the envisaged goals in terms of e-mobility diffusion can be reached. Moreover, we suggest additional measures such as a carbon tax on fuel, more charging points, and higher direct subsidies, which are as a combined package likely to have a significantly positive effect on the diffusion of electric cars.
Highlights
The COP21 (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 21st Conference of the Parties) agreement requires the industrialized countries to become greenhouse gas neutral by 2050 [1]
With the EMOSIM model, we investigate the diffusion of battery electric vehicles and plug-in electric vehicles in Germany and seek to indicate how different policy instruments can stimulate the diffusion process
We focus on the decision-making behavior of German households regarding their vehicle choice between the three options “conventional internal combustion engine-driven vehicle (ICE)”, “plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV)” and “battery electric vehicle (BEV)”
Summary
The COP21 (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 21st Conference of the Parties) agreement requires the industrialized countries to become greenhouse gas neutral by 2050 [1]. This translates into considerable decarbonization efforts in all economic sectors. To get back on track towards a more sustainable mobility sector, the federal government set up a plan to speed-up e-mobility diffusion, which is expected to result in CO2 emission reductions. From today’s perspective, we are far away from a path that is steep enough to reach this goal. New policy instruments have to be developed, tested, and introduced in order to increase the steepness of the transition path
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
