Stima degli effetti delle variazioni climatiche attese sul bilancio idrico dell'area del distretto vulcanico dei Colli Albani

Abstract

In the present work it is proposed, in light of the data obtained from recent available climate projections, a rereading of the water balance of the area of the volcanic district of the Alban Hills (Lazio) and neighboring sectors, including the city of Rome and the delta of the Tiber River. The water balance of this area has been the subject of extensive studies in the past (Capelli et al., 2005; Mazza et al., 2009,Gazzetti, 2011) which allowed the calibration of the inverse water balance for the period 1996-2000. These budget analyzes formed the basis for the Safeguarding rules for aquifers issued by the Authority of the Regional Basins of Lazio and the Basin Authority of the Tiber River. The monthly average precipitation and temperature values of two decades, 1991-2001 and 2046-2055, have been extrapolated from the selected climate projection model. To these data, statisticaldownscaling methods were applied to obtain monthly precipitation and temperature maps, with a spatial resolution of 250 m x 250 m, used in the estimates of the effects on the water balance of the expected climatic variation.