Abstract

Still Living with Mortality: The Longevity Risk Transfer Market after One Decade

Highlights

  • Consultancies tend to have fairly streamlined processes for running off stochastic projections in order to illustrate the magnitude of each element of the longevity risk; these would typically be based on simplified pension benefits but would reflect the most important aspects of the scheme, such as membership age, gender, and pension amounts

  • With investors increasingly monitoring the size of defined benefit (DB) liabilities and the effects on company share prices, profits and dividends, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said offloading these liabilities to insurers “is an attractive option” and “may represent a market-efficient arrangement” and that “regulation could play an important role in this area by facilitating such transactions.”

  • It becomes painfully obvious that vast sums of additional risk capital must be dedicated to adequately managing longevity risk

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Summary

Background

A little over a decade ago, the longevity risk transfer market started. This is a global market, but it began in the UK in 2006. Swiss Re pioneered the successful issuance of a longevity-spread bond, known as Kortis, but again the size of the issue was small. The demand for the capital market solutions that have been proposed for hedging longevity risk has been disappointingly low. Pension plan trustees, sponsors and advisers preferred dealing with risk by means of insurance contracts which fully removed the risk concerned and were not yet comfortable with capital market hedges that left some residual basis risk

Focus of This Paper
Layout of This Paper
Quantifying the Potential Size of the Longevity Risk Market
Hedgers
Specialist and General Investors
Speculators and Arbitrageurs
Governments
Regulators
Other Stakeholders
Overview
Pension Buy-outs
Pension Buy-ins
Longevity Insurance or Insurance-Based Longevity Swaps
Longevity-Spread Bonds
Capital-Markets-Based Longevity Swaps
31 December 2018
Index Versus Customised Hedges
Basis Risk
Other Types of Basis Risk
Regulatory Capital
Collateral
Liquidity
Extrapolative or Time Series Models – Single Population Variants
Extrapolative or Time Series Models – Multi-Population Variants
Process-Based and Causal Models
10.1. Overview
10.2. Users of Stochastic Mortality Models
10.3. Practical Implementation of Stochastic Mortality Models
10.4. Determining the Longevity Risk Premium
10.5. Estimating Regulatory Capital Relief
10.6. Comparison of Risk Management Options
11. Developments in the Longevity Risk Transfer Market Since 2006
12.1. Overview
12.2. Potential New Solution
12.3. Potential New Solution
12.4. Why Could These Potential Solutions Be Successful Now?
Findings
13. Conclusions

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