Abstract
This paper explores how earthquake scientists conceptualise earthquake prediction, particularly given the conviction of six earthquake scientists for manslaughter (subsequently overturned) on 22 October 2012 for having given inappropriate advice to the public prior to the L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009. In the first study of its kind, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 earthquake scientists and the transcribed interviews were analysed thematically. The scientists primarily denigrated earthquake prediction, showing strong emotive responses and distancing themselves from earthquake 'prediction' in favour of 'forecasting'. Earthquake prediction was regarded as impossible and harmful. The stigmatisation of the subject is discussed in the light of research on boundary work and stigma in science. The evaluation reveals how mitigation becomes the more favoured endeavour, creating a normative environment that disadvantages those who continue to pursue earthquake prediction research. Recommendations are made for communication with the public on earthquake risk, with a focus on how scientists portray uncertainty.
Highlights
In the last week of March 2009, an Italian laboratory technician announced that instruments he had built to measure radon patterns indicated that a major earthquake was imminent near the town of L’Aquila in the Abruzzo region of central Italy
The first two themes illuminate how scientists appraise the empirical status and practical effects of earthquake prediction, and show how scientists position their own perspective in opposition to what they see as misguided viewpoints of the public and of certain colleagues
The interviews conducted for this study provide empirical support for the pertinence of boundary work in how the issue of earthquake prediction is managed within the scientific community
Summary
In the last week of March 2009, an Italian laboratory technician announced that instruments he had built to measure radon patterns indicated that a major earthquake was imminent near the town of L’Aquila in the Abruzzo region of central Italy. In response to public concern, a meeting of the National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks was convened on 31 March 2009 to assess the risks posed to the Abruzzo region. It concluded that evidence for the laboratory technician’s prediction was weak and that a major earthquake was unlikely, the possibility could not be excluded (Nosengo, 2010). Local residents claimed that the communications that followed the meeting on 31 March lulled citizens into a false sense of security, persuading many that evacuating
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